Growing Tired, Getting Angry...

If there is ever to be such a thing as ‘the Senegalese Spring’, the history books may well one day record 23^rd June 2011 as the moment where the political world in Dakar turned on its axis ever so slightly. Usually so calm and tranquil to anyone except the casual shopper, Senegal became the latest scene for mass street protests against an elite accused of subverting democracy for personal gain.

The immediate cause was the attempted introduction of law 13-2011, which sought to amend the constitution so that a Presidential candidate could win the first round of an election with just 25% of the vote, rather than the 50% needed before. It also sought to create a new position of Vice-President, who would take over the reins if the President became unable to carry out his (or her) duties.

Technical changes to election rules might seem an unlikely reason to riot - the British people, of course, unleashing nothing but mass apathy during the referendum on electoral reform this May, opting incidentally to stick with a system not totally dissimilar to what President Wade tried to introduce in Senegal.

But as ever context is everything. With elections just nine months away, and given the level of disunity amongst potential opposition candidates, lowering the threshold for a first round victory would give an enormous advantage to the incumbent. And given the real possibility that the 85 year-old President may face health problems during a future term, opponents also suspect that the  creation of the Vice-President post would be a neat way to ease his son, Karim, into power.

Of course, it’s not just the technical changes that have riled people, but also the manner of their attempted introduction – coming not from any consultation or election manifesto, and subject to no referendum. And with parliament dominated by supporters of the President (many opposition parties boycotted the last election so are sparsely represented), resistance came from the streets of Dakar, Kaolack and other towns across the country, where thousands gathered to chant slogans such as “Wade, degage” (Wade, Out!) and “Wade, Go”.  

Rocks flew and tyres burned across the city, and while no-one was killed, over 100 people were injured, and the houses of a few ministers were destroyed (though charmingly, one group was convinced not to burn the house of a Minister – just trash it – as it was rented and belonged to someone else). The result: an apparent victory for people power as the law was withdrawn.

The confrontational methods may have been in part inspired by the Arab Spring, but the issues, grievances and personalities were deeply Senegalese in nature. Rappers, wrestlers and, of course, Youssou N’Dour provide a distinctively Senegalese face to the opposition movement, while the role of traditional and religious leaders are highly significant on both sides – the Minister of Family, Aida Mbodji, reacted to events by visiting spiritual leaders asking them to pray for the re-election of Wade in 2012, whilst a major story in the papers just a few weeks ago centred around a vision by another spiritual leader that a military government would be in place before the elections next year.

Constant power cuts and ever-rising food prices – probably the two most common complaints in daily life - take a political edge too. To opponents of the regime they are symptoms of a deeper political malaise that has at its core poor governance and corruption amongst a self-serving political elite. The attempts to load the electoral dice may simply have been the last straw.

A dramatic week, but what does it all tell us? Well, to a casual (ie. non-expert) observer of Senegalese politics like me, the last week provided a few basic thoughts...

The first is that the attempted introduction of law 13-2011 has, rightly or wrongly, provided more fuel for that all-too-familiar caricature of a formerly promising leader who has stayed on too long. A decade ago Abdoulaye Wade was the great hero of “l’Alternance”, Senegal’s first democratic change of power. Today there are plenty of people who feel this heritage has been betrayed. 

A second is that after years of simmering frustration, it is quite possible that a tipping point has been reached. A lazy assumption heard all the time is that the people of Senegal are too averse to confrontation, too intellectual, too fond of discussion to enforce change. Civil society is certainly vibrant, but rarely violent – a demonstration in March dubbed in advance as ‘Senegal’s Tahrir Square’ was largely a polite and discursive affair. But now people have stood up, and have won doing so, these assumptions may no longer hold –things might never be the same again.  

A crucial third thought is that this last week has shown that the government of Senegal is, to its credit, neither immune to people power, nor willing to use extreme violence to suppress it. This week’s demonstrations were significant, but they were not irresistible, and any actual dictator worth his salt could have crushed them easily, and with glee. But Senegal is certainly not Syria, and Wade is not Assad. Responding to the protests he has said that “he will not walk over dead bodies to leave the Presidential Palace” - something that bodes far better for citizens of Dakar than Damascus. 

And finally, it exposed the gap between those itching for reform and the political options open to them. Senegal has no dearth of smart, passionate, idealistic citizens, as movements such as “Y en a marre” (“I’m tired of it”) - or conversations on any street corner - show, but it has too few – or in truth too many - vehicles to make their voices matter. The very attempt to introduce law 13-2011 was to exploit the fatal flaw of division amongst Senegal’s opposition movement, where drives for unity are continually sacrificed at the altar of ego and empire. That there is still no single opposition candidate to rally around nine months before an election must surely be their main cause of concern. 

Senegal is undoubtedly entering into more volatile times, and how the politics of the street and the ballot box combine will possibly define its path. Whilst some will be tempted to continue the politics of the street to try and force Wade out before the coming election, to me this risks taking the lessons of the Arab Spring a step too far. Whilst voting out Mubarak or Ben Ali was never really an option for the people of Egypt and Tunisia, Senegal remains for better or worse a democracy nine months away from a national election, where the rule of law is broadly respected. The street can demand a fair process, but ultimately it will be the right of every citizen, whether dissenter or loyalist, at the ballot box to make their choice. The street, after all, might sometimes be wrong.